On March 11, 2011 a devastating earthquake off the coast of Tohoku, triggered violent tsunami waves that claimed the lives of at least 15,854 people. More than 3,155 people are still missing. The World Bank has estimated that the economic cost of the tragedy is about $235 billion, making it single most expensive natural disaster in world history. It was a disaster of epic proportions—the greatest earthquake ever to have hit Japan and one of the strongest since record keeping began in 1900.
So strong was the earthquake that it physically changed Japan’s landscape, bringing it 7.9 feet closer to North America and shifting the earth's axis anywhere from 10 to 25 centimeters. It also caused several nuclear meltdowns at three reactors in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant complex. An aftershock several days later caused the Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant to lose three of four external power lines and impacted cooling functions, leading to a spill of a couple liters of radioactive water.
In the aftermath, the international media focused obsessively on the nuclear accidents. Even though it was the tsunami that more strongly impacted—and continues to affect—both people and infrastructure in Japan, the nuclear accidents generated considerable international anxiety.
“There was more fear and anger with regard to the nuclear accident than the earthquake or the tsunami,” said William Burns, a decision research scientist at California State San Marcos. “Emotional reaction to the nuclear accident was high.”
Massive loss of life resulted from the natural disaster, not the nuclear accidents that Japan worked diligently to contain. Yet it was an accident due to man’s oversight, in this case not preparing nuclear sites for a massive 9.0 earthquake, which caused more fear globally following the natural disaster. Worldwide media immediately began to draw comparisons between the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster in the Ukraine and the Fukushima meltdown.
“Chernobyl is much, much worse,” said Najmedin Meshkati, an engineering professor with the USC Viterbi School of Engineering. Meshkati, who has visited Chernobyl’s nuclear accident site, is an expert on effects of earthquakes on nuclear plants and emergency responses. “There was really not anything wrong with the design of the [Japanese] reactors,” said Meshkati. “However, we really need to change some of our basic assumptions. Aristotle had a beautiful line: ‘Probable impossibilities are to be preferred to improbable possibilities.’ What we saw in Japan were probable impossibilities.”
There is no way to know for certain how humans react when faced with disaster. But making the unthinkable thinkable—understanding the ramifications of a disaster and methods that can help in preparing for its consequences—is a focal point of the research at USC’s Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE).
A team of researchers recently completed a Department of Homeland Security-funded study that assesses the regional economic impacts of a hypothetical catastrophic event like a radiological dispersal device (RDD) attack or a “dirty bomb” attack on Los Angeles’ financial district compared to a natural disaster like an earthquake. Such an attack has the potential to cause radioactive fallout across the city and surrounding areas—thereby causing a mass exodus and significant damage to commerce. After New York, Los Angeles is the second most populous city in the United States. It’s no great surprise, therefore, that the city has long been a top target for terror organizations such as al-Qaida.
To read more, click here.