Turning big, frozen deposits of methane buried under the seafloor into fuel for our cars and homes is coming closer to reality. As Japan, China and to a lesser extent the U.S. try to tap these abundant resources, important questions are arising about just how much they may contribute to climate change. The answers seem to range widely, depending on who is talking.

This issue has quickly risen because Japan conducted its second production test of these deposits, known as methane hydrates, in May. China soon followed with its first attempt to do the same. The news caught natural resource experts off guard because most of them thought it would still be years before nations tried to turn these icy gases into commercial products.

Production might still be a decade or more away in the U.S., which has been a quiet partner with Japan and China, although the Department of Energy has begun discussions with Alaska and Japanese interests about performing an extended production test in Alaska’s North Slope. The negotiations are considered “delicate,” says Tim Collett, a U.S. Geological Survey research geologist. Hydrates exist in the already commercialized Gulf of Mexico, too. If fully developed, hydrates around the globe could provide as much energy worldwide as natural gas does today.

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