Sending the first humans to Mars has not only been the dream of countless generations but also reached back to the early modern era. It’s also been the subject of mission planning since the Space Age and is an integral part of the current vision for the future of space exploration.
For the past 20 years, the public has heard statements to the effect that NASA will send the first crew to Mars by the early 2030s. First, the Moon, then on to Mars! That was the plan, and for a while, it looked like NASA was sticking to it.
In recent years, other players have joined the “race for Mars,” including the China National Space Agency (CNSA) and Elon Musk’s commercial space giant SpaceX.
Like NASA, China plans to build infrastructure on the Moon that will help it launch the first “taikonauts” to Mars by as early as 2033, according to several sources.
SpaceX’s plans are even more ambitious, with missions planned for the late 2020s and creating a self-sustaining city before the end of the decade. Unfortunately, many dissenting voices have said that reaching Mars by 2033 (or sooner) is unrealistic.
There have also been numerous delays along the way that have hinted at how the whole “Moon to Mars” mission architecture could fall short of its timelines.
According to statements issued last summer by Associate Administrator Jim Reuter, 2040 may be the more likely year for a crewed mission to the Martian surface. While delays are common with spaceflight, a seven-year delay is striking and raises questions.
The biggest problem are the overly long flight times. If they reduce the flight time to a few weeks rather than months, some of the serious physiological and psychological issues could be resolved.
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