You’ve no doubt seen this sort of news story: “Astronomers say space rock may hit Earth in the not-too-distant future!” We usually see such warnings about one or two objects every year; the latest iteration concerns an asteroid, 2024 YR4, that may be up to 100 meters wide and as of this writing has a greater than 2 percent chance of striking our planet in 2032.
But how can anyone know such things? How do astronomers find these asteroids and then determine where they’ll be many years into the future?
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