Suppose there are signs of extraterrestrial life and we have not yet been able to detect them. What does that mean? In Nature Astronomy, researchers discuss the consequences of these so-called false-negative results. "We are currently investing a great deal of money in missions that might need to be designed differently."
One of the main goals of astrobiology, the science that investigates the origin of life in the universe, is to test the hypothesis that extraterrestrial life exists. In practice, this means searching for evidence, a process in which ambiguous and disputable results are common.
Astrobiologists are very aware of the possibility of these so-called "false-positive" indications that wrongly suggest the existence of life. A false-negative result, on the other hand, means that we fail to detect life that is or was indeed present.
"We should be aware of these false-negative results," says lead author Inge Loes ten Kate, professor of astrobiology at Utrecht University and the University of Amsterdam. "It means there are shortcomings in recognizing the existence of life. These shortcomings are not yet high on the research agenda."
False-negative results may arise, among other things, from the extent to which traces of life have or have not been preserved, the detectability of observable traces, and the limitations inherent in our detection methods.
Ten Kate said, "We therefore advocate for the development of a targeted research strategy that systematically addresses these risks, in which we must combine laboratory experiments with modeling research and fieldwork. Space missions and instruments are designed to detect potential signs of life, but the risk of overlooking something is not taken into account.
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