At Universe Today, Matt Williams asks if it is time to update the Drake Equation, by which you could settle — in your own mind — how likely the aliens are. It began to be developed nearly sixty years ago at a conference at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Green Bank, West Virginia. And everyone took for granted that we would be hearing from the aliens soon. That was the basis of Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) — keeping the hope alive.
Rather than being an actual means for quantifying the number of intelligent species in our galaxy, the purpose of the equation was meant to frame the discussion on SETI. In addition to encapsulating the challenges facing scientists, it was intended to stimulate scientific dialogue among those attending the meeting.
Matt Williams, “60 Years Later, is it Time to Update the Drake Equation?” at UniverseToday (May 16, 2021)
And in the wake of the ensuing vast silence…
Whereas some scientists will laud it as one of the most important contributions to scientific inquiry, others have criticized it for its obvious uncertainties and conjectural nature. Such criticisms emphasize that by multiplying uncertain variables, the level of uncertainty grows exponentially, to the point where no firm conclusions are possible.
Matt Williams, “60 Years Later, is it Time to Update the Drake Equation?” at UniverseToday (May 16, 2021)
Would firm conclusions matter? The Drake Equation is iconic in its own right. It’s only natural to keep hope alive.
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