The Rio Scale: Quantifying the Consequences of an ET Discovery

Among the mysteries of the Universe that are able to be investigated by science, the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence remains one of the most fascinating.

Ancient cultures around the globe have already speculated on that possibility, but we may now finally have the right tools to conduct serious research.

Probably the best example of this present-day capability is the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Program, which aims to detect electromagnetic signals of extraterrestrial technological communication. Another is the Search for Extraterrestrial Artifacts (SETA), which looks for space probes or stellar-energy orbital plants (so-called “Dyson spheres”). Finding an unmistakable sign of alien technology would be evidence for alien intelligence, even if we never found any living species.

Scientists agree that even though the discovery of an alien civilization is an event of low probability, if it ever happens it would have deep social, political, religious, intellectual and scientific consequences. But can we quantify the severity of such an event? Can we compare the effects of different alien contact situations?