Forecast

  • The widespread use of quantum computers in industry is likely only a decade or two away.

  • The United States will probably maintain its lead in the field, though China will be competitive.

  • The countries and companies that first access quantum computers will enjoy a powerful advantage over their peers in areas that stand to gain from the technology.

Analysis

Quantum computers, or computers based on the principles of quantum mechanics, stand to exponentially increase computing power within the next two decades. Though the scientific community is still fiercely debating the very nature of quantum mechanics itself, and numerous technical obstacles stand in the way of applying the principles of quantum mechanics to machines, the field is rapidly developing.

Now, the widespread use of quantum computers in industry is likely only a decade or two away. Such devices will be far more powerful than even the most powerful supercomputers seen today, carrying significant implications for national security, cyberwarfare and intelligence operations, among many other things. Just how powerful quantum computers can be — and how their adoption could lead to another revolution in computer-related technologies — becomes clear when we consider their computing power. Using a quantum computer to solve a problem can loosely be thought of as trying all possible solutions at once, whereas using a classical solution would mean trying them in sequential order. The expansion in computing power gained by incorporating quantum mechanics principles into computing could prove to be as revolutionary to computer science as research in physics and electromagnetism has proved to modern electronics.

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