Quantum computers promise an exponential increase in power compared with today’s classical CMOS-based systems. This increase is of a magnitude that is difficult for the human mind to comprehend. So there is real excitement that quantum computers will deliver benefits that are not possible with today’s systems. With such promise, we are seeing the rise of quantum computing prophets who say that, in just a few years, these machines will have the ability change the world. And conversely, we’re seeing more quantum computing skeptics who say it will never happen.
At Intel, we are taking a pragmatic view of quantum computing. Our enterprise and high-performance computing customers are already asking for this capability from us. And we expect that demand to grow. However, quantum computing is still most certainly in the research stage. It may never work.
But we all see the enormous opportunities and they are worth pursuing.
Recently, a perspective published in IEEE Spectrum suggested that quantum computing will never materialize. Its main argument was that quantum computing will require control over an exponentially large number of quantum states, and that this amount of control is too difficult to achieve.
As both a quantum computing optimist and as a realist who has seen how long it takes for new semiconductor technologies to come to market, I recognize where the concern is coming from, but I believe it is still far too soon to say we’ll “never” realize the promise of quantum computing.
I believe there are four key challenges that could keep quantum computing from becoming a reality. But if solved, we could create a commercially relevant quantum computer in about 10-12 years, a computer that might change your life or mine.
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